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Typhoon Narra makes landfall in Hainan after floods force over 50,000 to evacuate in Guangxi_我的网站

鹿鼎记陈小春版

一 |

    A rescue boat is seen moves through a flooded area in Longzhou, South China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, on August 24, 2026, after heavy rainfall brought by Typhoon Narra and upstream inflows caused water levels along the Zuojiang River to rise. Photo: VCGTyphoon Narra, the 19th typhoon of the year, made landfall along the coast of Changjiang county in South China's Hainan Province at around 6:40 pm on Tuesday, after bringing heavy rainfall and flooding to southern regions, triggering evacuation of 50,000 people across Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.
Guangxi faced its most severe flooding in decades, with 14 rivers at 20 hydrological stations surpassing warning levels by 0.37 to 7.69 meters. The Mingjiang River recorded its highest flood peak since records began in 1953, surging 6.69 meters above the warning level, while the Zuojiang River saw its highest levels since 1986, the Xinhua News Agency reported on Tuesday.
According to a report from China News Service, the flood which hit the Zuojiang River brought the peak water level to 123.54 meters, 7.34 meters above the warning level.
A total of 15,535 people in Longzhou county have been evacuated and relocated, while rescue teams are carrying out relief operations for affected residents, China News reported on Tuesday.
Longzhou county lies along the China-Vietnam border, where the Ping'er River, an upstream tributary of the Zuojiang River, flows across the border. Flood conditions in Longzhou therefore depend not only on local rainfall but also on water flowing in from Vietnam. The Chinese side remains in daily contact with the Vietnamese side to keep track of inflows along the Ping'er River, China News Service reported.
An earlier report from Xinhua said that, as of Sunday, the typhoon had affected 61,000 people across Guangxi, with 54,000 people relocated due to the disaster and 8,087 placed in emergency shelters.
Since forming on August 21, Typhoon Narra has barely moved, lingering over the Beibu Gulf. As of 1 pm Tuesday, its center was located over the Beibu Gulf about 55 kilometers west-northwest of Dongfang city in South China's Hainan Province, maintaining tropical storm intensity, China Central Television (CCTV) News reported on Tuesday.
The Guangxi water resources authority on Tuesday upgraded its flood-control emergency response for Guigang, while maintaining higher-level responses in several other cities, including Chongzuo, Fangchenggang and Nanning, CCTV reported.
China's National Meteorological Center (NMC) said Typhoon Narra would make landfall or brush past Hainan, making landfall in Guangdong and Guangxi coastal areas on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. It was packing winds of up to 20 meters per second near its center, with gale-force winds extending 100 to 150 kilometers outward — roughly comparable to the distance between New York City and Philadelphia. Narra is expected to weaken rapidly after making landfall.
Global Times
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　　黄金重拾涨势，金矿股水涨船高。
　　上周，伦敦现货黄金价格连续突破每盎司4400美元、4500美元和4600美元三道整数关口，周涨幅达5.18%，录得周线三连涨。COMEX黄金期货最高触及4690美元/盎司，较7月阶段低点4022美元/盎司，最大反弹超16%。　　与此同时，上周A股中报密集披露，多家金矿企业交出净利润大幅增长的亮眼成绩单。据统计，已披露业绩的6家金矿企业上半年均实现营收、净利双增长，其中3家净利增长翻倍。　　在金价和业绩双重提振下，A股及港股黄金概念股8月以来保持强势，板块内多只个股掀起涨停潮；黄金股ETF月内涨幅超过20%。业内人士分析称，因金矿开采成本刚性，金价上涨带动利润增长，叠加金矿公司产量扩张，业绩增速远超金价涨幅，黄金股的弹性显著高于金价。

二 | 　　业绩与金价共振　　A股黄金板块中报披露自8月下旬起进入密集期，上周多家公司已相继交出亮眼成绩单。

三 | 　　总的来看，业绩增速与金价涨幅高度正相关。2026年上半年，伦敦现货黄金同比上涨超50%，而6家A股金矿公司净利润增速均值为73%，利润增速远超金价涨幅，成本刚性的杠杆效应在财报中得到验证。 K图 601899_0 　　其中，龙头股紫金矿业（601899.SH）于8月21日晚间披露半年报。上半年实现营业收入1941.78亿元，同比增长15.78%；归母净利润为391.7亿元，同比增长68.17%，日赚约2.16亿元。报告期内，公司矿产金约46.7吨，同比增长13.4%。
　　招金黄金（000506.SZ）、四川黄金（001337.SZ）等矿企，受益于量价齐升，净利润增速分别达到407%和160%以上，弹性更为突出。 K图 000506_0 　　招金黄金中期业绩显示，公司上半年实现收入3.63亿元，同比增长85.13%；归母净利润为2.27亿元，同比增长407.44%；四川黄金半年报显示，上半年实现营业收入8.27亿元，同比增长87.03%；归母净利润为4.33亿元，同比增长107.34%。

四 |
K图 002237_0 　　不过，恒邦股份（002237.SZ）归母净利翻倍却是靠减持撑起，扣非归母净利反而出现下滑。
　　恒邦股份于8月21日披露的2026年半年度报告显示，上半年实现营业总收入621.78亿元，同比增长44.43%；归母净利润为6.72亿元，同比增长112.60%。然而，扣非归母净利润仅为3.74亿元，同比下降9.08%。　　该公司同时称，归母净利润翻倍主要来自本期减持参股公司万国黄金4312万股股份，确认非经常性损益约2.98亿元，该收益不具备可持续性；同时，扣非净利润下滑主要系本期计提存货跌价准备6.24亿元，对核心盈利产生压制。　　8月最后一周，多家金矿公司将密集披露中报。中信证券分析，从估值角度看，7月份金价承压背景下黄金板块PE降低至10.3倍左右，处于历史低位区间，随着金价站稳4600美元并有望进一步上行，叠加中报业绩的持续验证，黄金板块有望迎来业绩与估值共振上行。

五 | 　　金价重回上升通道　　8月以来，金价连续上涨，行情加速演绎。

六 | 截至8月23日，伦敦黄金现货价格实现连续三周上涨，月累计涨幅约12%。目前交投于4550美元/盎司附近，上行动能充足。　　宏观面上，美国联邦政府债务总额已突破40万亿美元。美国财政部宣布，将长期国债（10年至20年期区间及20年至30年期区间）回购规模扩大至少一倍。

七 | 　　道明证券分析称，美国财政部释放支持长期限美债市场的信号，若美联储忽略暂时性的能源价格上涨，将对黄金形成更有利的推动。这也意味着，当前金价上涨已经突破了传统的利率机会成本逻辑，即使美国国债收益率回升，黄金的中期基本面也有支撑。　　瑞银大宗商品分析师乔瓦尼·施陶诺沃表示，全球债务水平攀升叠加美元持续走弱，正是去年金价大涨的底层逻辑，如今这些担忧再度卷土重来。瑞银维持年底金价目标在4600美元/盎司，并新推出2027年9月底目标价5400美元/盎司。　　对金价的中长期展望，多家外资机构开始指向黄金重回上行通道。　　花旗将未来一年黄金价格看向每盎司5000美元～6000美元，核心依据是美国财政部干预、美债期限溢价失控风险、美元偏弱以及“去美元化”交易重启。

八 | 　　德意志银行给出的金价年末目标为每盎司4700美元～5100美元，并分析称，依托全球央行购金与ETF回流——黄金ETF过去30天净流入约150万盎司、年内累计增加约400万盎司，而2026年第一季度全球央行购金金额达到388.8亿美元——金价有望继续上行。　　“从全球债务高企、美元信用走弱、央行购金趋势不改的中长期视角看，黄金的底层支撑稳定。”行业分析人士提示称，当然，风险因素同样不可忽视。若美联储超预期转鹰、地缘冲突再度升级推升油价、结构性买盘弱于预期，金价短期仍可能面临波动。（文章来源：第一财经）。